The note, obtained and analysed by MacRumors, also says shipments will decline 25 per cent year-on-year in comparison to 2015, dropping to an expected 7.5 million units in 2016, despite the expected introduction of a new model.
Kuo says the smartwatch market is still too "immature" and the first generation Apple Watch, which should be the only Apple wearable on sale for most of 2016, lacks a few "key features", such as a killer app and limited battery life. Its dependency on the iPhone is also a huge limiting factor. In his notes, Kuo expects the Apple Watch 2 to go into mass production in the third quarter of 2016, tying the device up for a reveal alongside the iPhone 7 in September. Rumours earlier this year suggested Apple was to debut the device at its March keynote, but most have now settled on early autumn as the most likely stage. In addition, the analyst details his expectations of the next wearable, with some predictions that could disappoint fans looking forward to a major overhaul. The Apple Watch 2 is set to take up the same upgrade cycle as the iPhone and changes could be limited to the internals, rather than a brand new design.
MacRumors says that some "minor form factor" changes could be on the way but that overall, the next Apple Watch will not look too different to the present model. This is "one of Kuo's biggest reasons for declining Apple Watch shipments in 2016", it adds. Kuo's analysis flies in the face of a research note issued last week, saying Apple will introduce the Apple Watch 2 at its Worldwide Developers Conference in June, with a completely different design which is up to 40 per cent thinner than the present model. However, both analysts believe the next smartwatch will get a FaceTime camera and an expansion of wi-fi capabilities, as well as some new model introductions. The International Business Times is less convinced, though. It believes that even these upgrades may have to wait until 2017 and a brand new design.
Writer - Liam McClelland | @Liamicy